نمذجة التغير في درجة الحرارة العظمى في منطقة زوارة للفترة (1961 – 2050) باستخدام تقنية SDSM.

Abstract

The research aims to identify the technique of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and to know the methods that are used in predicting the future climate, as it will depend on the maximum temperature of the Zuwara weather station for the period (1961-2020), and to predict the rate of increase or The future decrease (21-2050) using SDSM, based on climate change scenarios (A2a) (B2a)), which are scenarios published by the IPCC in a report known as SRES in the year 2000 to develop climate and environment projections based on greenhouse gases, and then rely on Statistical analysis methods used in climate studies by SPSS, to detect trends in the maximum temperature change for the three periods (1961-1990), (1991-2020), (2021-2050) as Simple Linear Regression analysis and t-test, and the results showed trends of annual maximum temperature change. And the quarterly increase compared to the last two periods with the first and at a level of statistical significance less than 0.05