تحليل ونمذجة درجات الحرارة في منطقة الزاوية للفترة 1961 - 2099 باستخدام التقنيات المكانية

Abstract

The study dealt with the subject of forecasting temperatures (minimum, maximum, and average) in the Al-Zawiya region in the future for the period (2010 - 2099). Relying on daily temperature data for the base period (1961-1990) using the (Statistical Downscaling Modell (SDSM)) technique, and using as input data the Hadley Modell HadCM3 and climate change scenarios (A2a) (B2a), which are scenarios approved by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in A report known as SRES in 2000 to make climate and environmental projections based on greenhouse gases. In addition to relying on statistical analysis methods used for climate data using the SPSS program to detect temperature change trends for the four periods, which are: (1961-1990), (2010-2039), (2040-2069), and (2070-2099). To achieve the objectives of the study, the homogeneity of the data and the variance of its means were examined using the One Way Anova test, and several statistical measures were applied (standard deviation, clustered differences), to serve as indicators for analyzing and identifying temperature extremes. The results of simple linear regression indicated a clear trend of increase in annual average temperatures for the two stations of the study area (Al-Zawiya and Bir Al-Ghanam) and the Tripoli Airport station, with positive values for the variable b, and at a level of statistical significance less than 0.05. The results of the calibration, through Modelling the data of monthly and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures for the period (1991 - 2009) for the study area using SDSM and comparing them with the data monitored by the National Center of Meteorology, proved that there is a match between them, which confirms to us the validity of the data monitored by the National Center of Meteorology in Tripoli. On the one hand, and on the other hand, we are confident that the SDSM program is accurate in predicting maximum and minimum temperatures in the future. Through future Modelling and comparing the annual average of minimum, maximum and average temperatures for the base period (1961-1990) with the three Modelling periods extending from (2010-2099) based on the two scenarios H3A2a and H3B2a, it showed a slight change in the annual average for the three future periods of minimum temperature. Towards a decline at a rate of (-0.1) for the three future periods. While the maximum temperature decreases in the second period at a rate of (-1) and rises in the last two periods at a rate of (0.4) degrees Celsius. As for the average temperature, it increases at a rate of (0.1) in the second and third periods and increases in the third period at a rate of (0.4). The results of simple linear regression analysis of temperatures in the Zawiya region showed a trend towards an increase in annual rates, and a variation in seasonal rates for both scenarios. This is evidence and indication that the temperature is heading ق towards warming in the Zawiya region, through the presence of positive values for the variable (b) in the annual rates. For the three future periods compared to the base period (1961-1990), and differing in quarterly trends and at a level of statistical significance less than 0.05. Temperatures rise in the winter and spring during future periods with positive values of the variable (b), as the minimum temperature rise ranges at a rate of 3 degrees in the winter, 6 degrees in the spring, decreases at a rate of 5 degrees in the fall, and decreases at a rate of 4 degrees in the summer.The maximum temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius in the winter and 6 degrees in the spring, while it decreases by 7 degrees in the fall and 5 degrees in the summer. As for the average temperature, it rises in the winter at a rate of 3 degrees Celsius, and rises in the spring at a rate of 6 degrees Celsius, while it decreases in the fall and spring seasons at a rate of (6 and 4) degrees Celsius, respectively. This obligates decision- makers in the Libyan state to take the necessary and urgent measures to confront the risks resulting from climate change, such as the recurrence of devastating heat waves and drought that coincide with the lack of groundwater in all regions alike, in addition to the extension of desertification and the loss of the soil’s fertility and properties, which will have a major impact. On agricultural lands and crops, the flooding of valleys and the flow of torrents, Therefore, the Libyan state must attach great importance to supporting scientific research projects that address priority areas in this field and which aim to provide a unique approach in studying and analyzing these risks